How a CMO Designs a Win-Back Campaign in 20 Minutes

EmberBet is a UK-licensed multi-vertical operator running sports betting and casino out of London, with around thirty thousand monthly active players and roughly £10M per week in gross gaming revenue. The brand has built genuine loyalty in competitive UK and European markets — but loyalty, Lena Eriksson knows better than anyone, has a half-life. As Marketing Director, Lena is responsible for both acquiring new players and keeping the ones already won. On this particular Tuesday morning, a report from her CRM analyst landed in her inbox at 8:47 a.m.: 4,200 players who had been active within the past twelve months had now gone dark for between thirty and ninety days. No deposits. No sessions. Just silence.

Lena had a briefing with her external creative agency at 11:00 a.m. They'd be asking what the campaign offer should be, who it should target, which channel, and what tone. She had seventy-three minutes to go from a headcount to a campaign brief.

Products used: Player Segmentation, Churn Analysis, Reactivation Modeling

20 minutes | full dormant player analysis to campaign brief

4,200 dormant players segmented | 6 distinct reactivation cohorts identified

Projected 8.4% reactivation | at 5.1x ROI, recovering £62K monthly GGR

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Challenge

Four thousand two hundred dormant players is a number that means nothing on its own. A mass win-back email offering everyone a free bet is both expensive and wasteful — the right offer for a £2,000/month VIP casino regular is not the right offer for a £20/week weekend football punter. Lena had built enough campaigns to know that blunt reactivation blasts yield 2–3% response rates at best, burn promotional budget on players who were never going to come back anyway, and occasionally irritate high-value players who expected something more personal.

What she needed was a proper picture of who these 4,200 people actually were — not a flat list, but a segmented view of their value, their betting behaviour, the vertical they'd been most active in, how long they'd actually been quiet, and ideally some signal about why they left. Armed with that, she could build a targeted brief with distinct offers, channels, and tones per segment. Without it, she'd be briefing the agency on gut feel and hoping the A/B test would sort it out four weeks later.

The old process would have meant waiting two or three days for the analytics team to produce the segmentation, another day for the CRM team to pull historical reactivation success rates, and then a separate conversation with finance to get budget approval against projected ROI. The agency briefing would have been postponed, the campaign delayed by a fortnight, and those dormant players — already drifting further from the brand — would have slipped another few weeks toward permanent churn.

"Dormant isn't dead, but every week you wait it gets closer. Thirty days dormant, you have a 40% chance of getting them back with the right offer. Ninety days dormant, that drops to under 15%. The window is real, and it doesn't wait for the analytics backlog."

— Lena Eriksson, Marketing Director, EmberBet

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Solution

Lena opened Gaming Mind AI at 8:53 a.m. She had a list of 4,200 player IDs flagged by the CRM system and a blank campaign brief template. Twenty minutes later, she had both filled in.

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Lena: "I have 4,200 players who've been inactive for 30–90 days. Can you break them down by segment? I want to understand who they are and what they were worth before they went quiet."

Cohort	Players	% of Dormant Pool	Avg Monthly GGR (pre-churn)	Vertical	Last Active Period	Priority
Low-to-mid sports bettors	1,840	44%	£38	Sports betting	November international break	High
Mid-value casino regulars	690	16%	£210	Slots-dominant	Early January	High
High-value cross-vertical	180	4%	£520	Sports + live casino	Late Nov – December	Highest (by value)
New registrants — deposited once, never returned	740	18%	£12	Mixed	Spread across past 90 days	Low
Casual punters (<5 lifetime sessions)	610	15%	£8	Sports	Spread	Low
Self-excluded (exclude from all outreach)	140	3%	—	—	—	🔴 Do not contact
Total	4,200	100%	—	—	—	—

⚠️ Gaming Mind flags: 140 accounts are self-excluded and must be removed from the campaign list entirely before any further analysis. This was surfaced proactively — under UKGC regulations, contacting self-excluded players with bonus promotions carries material compliance risk.

Gaming Mind returned six distinct cohorts within seconds, and the distribution was striking. The single largest group — 1,840 players, or 44% of the dormant pool — were low-to-mid-value sports bettors with average monthly GGR of £38 before going quiet, last active during the November international break. A second cohort of 690 players were mid-value casino regulars (slots-dominant, average monthly GGR £210) who had dropped off in early January. A smaller but disproportionately valuable cohort of 180 players were cross-vertical players — sports and live casino — with average monthly GGR over £520. The remaining 1,490 were spread across three lower-value groups: new registrants who had deposited once and never returned, casual punters with fewer than five lifetime sessions, and a small group of 140 who had self-excluded and were flagged to exclude from all outreach. Gaming Mind surfaced that last point without prompting: those 140 accounts should be removed from the campaign list entirely before any further analysis.

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Lena: "Focus on the three groups most worth targeting. Tell me what their churn pattern looks like — when did they leave, and was there any common trigger?"

Cohort	Churn Trigger	Trigger Date	Churn Spike	Spontaneous Return Rate	Key Insight
1,840 sports bettors	Premier League fixture gap (Nov international break)	Week of 17 November	+61% churn that week	34% returned when PL resumed — no campaign needed	Same pattern in March international break prior year
690 casino regulars	Q4 bonus structure change — removal of weekly cashback	Late Q4	Gradual Nov–Jan drop-off	Lower without targeted offer	71% of this cohort had used the cashback in the month before it was removed
180 high-value cross-vertical	No single trigger — gradual drift	Late Nov – December	Spread	Lower without personal outreach	No common platform event; relationship-driven churn

⚠️ Gaming Mind flags: The 1,840 sports bettors churned for a structural reason (fixture gap), not a dissatisfaction signal — 34% will return spontaneously when the Premier League resumes. A well-timed push just before the next fixture block can recover a meaningful share at very low CPA. The casino cohort churned because of a specific platform change: the cashback removal. That churn cause is directly reversible.

The timing told a clear story across all three priority cohorts. The 1,840 sports bettors clustered sharply around a single date: the weekend of 17 November, immediately following the close of the Premier League fixture block before the international break. No unusual platform events, no payment processing issues — just a natural fixture gap that correlated with a 61% spike in sports-betting churn across that week. Gaming Mind flagged that this cohort had churned at the same relative rate during the March international break the prior year, and that 34% of them had reactivated spontaneously when the Premier League resumed — without any campaign. The implication was immediate: a well-timed push just before the next fixture block could recover a meaningful share of this group at very low CPA. The casino cohort told a different story. Their drop-off was gradual through December and early January, correlating with a change in EmberBet's bonus structure in Q4 — specifically, the removal of a weekly cashback promotion. Gaming Mind identified that 71% of this cohort had used the cashback offer in the month before it was discontinued.

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Lena: "For the cross-vertical high-value cohort — 180 players at £520 average monthly GGR — what does their history look like, and what has worked before to bring back players in this bracket?"

Metric	Value
Cohort size	180 players
Median lifetime value	£4,100
Avg pre-churn sessions per week	2.3
Vertical split	~55% sports / ~45% live casino
Churn pattern	Drift (no single trigger; spread late Nov – Dec)
Email-only reactivation rate (historical)	6%
Personalised outreach reactivation rate (VIP team, direct message or call)	22%
Players showing competitor deposit signals (payment gateway)	11 of 180
Recommended channel	VIP team personal contact — not automated email
Urgency for competitor-risk accounts	Same-day outreach

⚠️ Gaming Mind flags: 11 of these 180 players have deposited at a competitor platform in the past 30 days — prioritise those 11 for immediate same-day outreach given elevated competitive risk. For this cohort, personalised direct contact achieves 22% reactivation vs 6% for email alone.

This cohort was the most valuable and the most sensitive to handle. Gaming Mind profiled them: median lifetime value of £4,100, average 2.3 sessions per week before going quiet, split roughly 55% sports and 45% live casino. Their last sessions were spread across late November and December, with no single trigger event — these players had drifted rather than churned hard. Historical reactivation data from EmberBet's own prior campaigns showed that personalised outreach — direct message or phone call from the VIP team, not an automated email — achieved a 22% response rate for this value tier, versus 6% for email alone. Gaming Mind flagged that eleven of these 180 players had deposited at a competitor platform in the past thirty days, based on the platform's payment gateway signals, and recommended prioritising those eleven for the fastest possible outreach given the elevated competitive risk.

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Lena: "What offers have worked historically for the sports bettor cohort during international breaks? I want reactivation rates by offer type."

Offer Type	Avg Reactivation Rate	Avg Deposit Level vs Historical	Notes
Enhanced odds (preference-matched fixture)	9.1%	~85% of historical	Best performer; 40% higher than generic "big match" boost
Enhanced odds (generic "big match")	6.5%	~78%	Works but underperforms preference-matched by 40%
Deposit match bonus	6.8%	~61%	Many reactivated players deposit the minimum to trigger the match only
Free bet (generic)	4.6%	~72%	Lena's original plan — 2x worse than enhanced odds
Cashback	3.2%	~80%	Worst performer for sports-dominant dormant segment

⚠️ Gaming Mind flags: Enhanced odds outperform free bets by 2x for sports-dominant dormant players — but only when the fixture is personalised to the player's historical team or league preference. Generic boosts perform 40% worse than preference-matched ones. Lena had planned a flat free-bet offer. The data changed her mind.

The historical data across EmberBet's previous four reactivation campaigns produced a clear hierarchy for sports-dominant dormant players. Enhanced odds — a boosted price on a specific upcoming fixture — outperformed every other offer type with an average reactivation rate of 9.1%, roughly double the 4.6% rate achieved by generic free bet offers. Deposit match bonuses placed third at 6.8%, but with significantly higher promotional cost per reactivated player because many reactivated players deposited the minimum required to trigger the match rather than returning at their historical deposit level. Cashback offers performed worst at 3.2%. Gaming Mind noted that the enhanced odds format worked best when the trigger fixture was personalised to the player's historical team or league preference — generic "big match" boosts performed 40% worse than preference-matched ones. Lena had been leaning toward a free bet offer for simplicity. The data changed her mind.

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Lena: "For the casino cohort who churned after the cashback removal — what's the right offer, and how many are likely to reactivate?"

Parameter	Value
Cohort size	690 players
Recommended offer	15% cashback on casino net losses, capped at £50, 14-day expiry, casino play only
Projected reactivation rate	11.4%
Projected reactivations	~79 players
Avg monthly GGR post-reactivation (60-day period)	£185 (vs £210 pre-churn — typical warm-up effect)
Estimated monthly GGR recovery	£14,600
Promotional cost per reactivated player	£28
Total promotional cost (79 players)	~£2,200
ROI on this segment	~6.6x
Caution — broader scope risk	Longer window or sports scope increases redemption rate but erodes ROI to below breakeven on lower-value players

⚠️ Gaming Mind flags: The cashback offer that worked historically had a 14-day expiry and applied only to casino play — not sports. A longer window or broader scope increases redemption rate but erodes ROI to below breakeven on the lower-value players in this cohort. Keep the parameters tight.

Gaming Mind ran the reactivation model on the 690-player casino cohort against EmberBet's historical response curves. Reinstating a limited-time cashback offer — specifically, a 15% cashback on net losses capped at £50 — was projected to reactivate 11.4% of the cohort, or approximately 79 players. Average monthly GGR per reactivated casino player historically ran at £185 in the sixty days post-reactivation (slightly below their pre-churn £210, reflecting a typical warm-up period). The model estimated total GGR recovery from this segment at approximately £14,600 per month at a promotional cost of £28 per reactivated player. Gaming Mind added a caution: the cashback offer that worked historically had a fourteen-day expiry and applied only to casino play, not sports. A longer window or broader scope increased the redemption rate but eroded the ROI to below breakeven on the lower-value players in this cohort.

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Lena: "Pull it all together — give me a full budget and ROI projection across all three campaign segments."

Segment	Players Targeted	Offer	Reactivation Rate	Projected Reactivations	Avg Monthly GGR	Monthly GGR Recovery	Promo Cost	ROI
Sports bettors	1,840	Personalised enhanced odds (preference-matched fixture)	9.1%	~168	£186	£31,200	~£5,800	~5.4x
Casino regulars	690	15% cashback on casino losses, capped £50, 14-day	11.4%	~79	£185	£14,600	~£2,200	~6.6x
High-value cross-vertical	180	Personalised VIP outreach — bespoke bonus per vertical	22%	~40	£415	£16,600	~£4,200	~4.0x
Total / Blended	2,710	—	8.4%	~354	—	£62,400	£12,200	5.1x

⚠️ Gaming Mind flags: The high-value cross-vertical cohort (180 players, 5% of targeted pool) drives 37% of total projected GGR recovery. The VIP team must handle that outreach personally — not through the automated email sequence. The 11 competitor-risk accounts within that 180 should receive same-day contact.

The consolidated model across the three priority segments — 1,840 sports bettors, 690 casino regulars, and 180 high-value cross-vertical players — projected 354 total reactivations at a blended reactivation rate of 8.4%. Total projected monthly GGR recovery came in at £62,400: £31,200 from sports bettors (approximately 168 reactivations at £186 average monthly GGR post-reactivation), £14,600 from casino regulars (79 reactivations at £185), and £16,600 from the high-value cohort (assuming 22% response from direct outreach on the 180 players, yielding roughly 40 players returning at an estimated £415 average monthly GGR in the recovery period). Total promotional cost across all segments was projected at £12,200, yielding an overall ROI of 5.1x. Gaming Mind noted that the high-value cohort drove 37% of total projected GGR recovery from just 5% of the targeted players — strongly recommending that the VIP team handle that outreach personally, not through the automated email sequence.

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Lena: "Format this as a campaign brief I can share with my creative team and the VIP manager."

Segment	Players	Offer	Channel	Timing	Proj. Reactivation	GGR Recovery/Month	Budget
1 — Sports dormant	1,840	Personalised enhanced odds on preference-matched upcoming fixture	Email + push notification	5 days before next Premier League matchday	9.1% (~168 players)	£31,200	~£5,800
2 — Casino dormant (cashback-churn)	690	15% cashback on casino net losses, capped £50, 14-day expiry, casino only	Email sequence — 3-day cadence	Immediate	11.4% (~79 players)	£14,600	~£2,200
3 — High-value cross-vertical	180	Personalised VIP outreach — bespoke bonus per individual vertical preference; 11 competitor-risk accounts prioritised for same-day contact	VIP team personal contact (direct message or call)	Same day for 11 competitor-risk; within 3 days for remainder	22% (~40 players)	£16,600	~£4,200
Combined	2,710	—	—	2-week campaign window	8.4% (~354 players)	£62,400/month	£12,200

⚠️ Gaming Mind flags: Projected ROI is 5.1x across all three segments. The brief is ready to share with the creative agency and VIP manager. Segment 3 is the highest-value, lowest-volume play — handle it personally, not by automation, and start with the 11 competitor-risk accounts today.

Gaming Mind produced a structured brief Lena could paste directly into her agency deck. Segment One: 1,840 sports-dominant dormant players, offer of personalised enhanced odds on a preference-matched upcoming fixture, channel email + push notification, timing window of five days before the next Premier League matchday, projected reactivation 9.1%, estimated GGR recovery £31,200/month. Segment Two: 690 casino dormant players who had used the cashback promotion, offer of 15% cashback on casino net losses capped at £50 with a fourteen-day expiry, channel email sequence with three-day cadence, projected reactivation 11.4%, estimated GGR recovery £14,600/month. Segment Three: 180 high-value cross-vertical players, offer of personalised VIP outreach — direct message or call — with a bespoke bonus structured around their individual vertical preference, channel VIP team personal contact with eleven competitor-risk accounts prioritised for same-day outreach, projected reactivation 22%, estimated GGR recovery £16,600/month. Combined budget: £12,200. Projected ROI: 5.1x. Campaign window: two weeks.

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Results

Campaign brief ready in 20 minutes — not 72 hours

Lena walked into her 11:00 a.m. agency briefing with a fully populated brief: three distinct segments, tailored offers for each, projected reactivation rates backed by EmberBet's own historical data, a budget, and an ROI model. The briefing ran forty minutes instead of the usual ninety because there were no unanswered questions about who the campaign was for or what it should offer.

140 self-excluded players removed before outreach — zero regulatory risk

Gaming Mind flagged the self-excluded accounts proactively, before Lena asked about targeting. Under UKGC regulations, contacting self-excluded players with bonus promotions carries material compliance risk. The accounts were removed from the campaign list entirely. This single check eliminated a compliance exposure that a manual segmentation process might have missed.

High-value segment handled personally, not by automation

The brief was explicit on the 180-player cross-vertical cohort: no automated email, VIP team personal contact only. Gaming Mind's identification of eleven players showing signals of competitor activity meant the VIP manager had a prioritised list on her desk by 10:00 a.m. — before the creative agency briefing even began. Direct outreach on those eleven accounts went out the same day.

£62K monthly GGR recovered from a single 20-minute session

The campaign launched nine days later. At the four-week mark, 341 of the projected 354 reactivations had been achieved — a 96% accuracy against the model. Actual monthly GGR recovery came in at £59,800, within 4% of Gaming Mind's projection. Blended ROI across all three segments was 4.9x, fractionally below the 5.1x model owing to slightly lower average GGR from the sports cohort in their first month back.

Segment insight changed the offer strategy before a penny was spent

Lena had planned to run a flat free-bet offer across the full dormant list. Gaming Mind's historical performance data showed that enhanced odds outperformed free bets by 2x for sports-dominant players, and that cashback — not free bets — was the specific churn trigger for the casino cohort. Both findings changed the offer design before the brief was written. The estimated cost of the original flat approach versus the segmented one: roughly the same budget, but the free-bet approach would have yielded an estimated 156 reactivations against the 354 actually achieved.

"I've been running reactivation campaigns for seven years. The segmentation, the historical benchmarks, the ROI model — all of that used to take a week and three different people. I had it in twenty minutes, and it was better than anything we'd produced manually because it was built on our own data, not industry averages. The creative team said it was the most actionable brief they'd ever received from us."

— Lena Eriksson, Marketing Director, EmberBet