How an Affiliate Manager Built a Data-Backed Q2 Budget Proposal in 25 Minutes

ArcPlay is an affiliate-heavy iGaming operator headquartered in Manila, serving approximately twenty thousand monthly active players across Southeast Asia. The platform runs strong sports and casino verticals, settles in both USDT and PHP, and generates roughly $3.5M per week in gross gaming revenue across its player base. At the center of ArcPlay's growth machine is a network of sixty-plus affiliate partners spanning four geographies: the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia.

Products used: Campaign Analytics, Geo Performance, Budget Optimization

25 minutes | Q2 budget proposal drafted and submitted

$240K | affiliate budget allocated across 4 geos

22% | projected efficiency improvement over Q1 spend

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Challenge

Every quarter, Affiliate Manager Ryan Santos is responsible for presenting the CMO with a forward-looking budget proposal — which geos to invest in, which affiliate tiers to reward, which campaigns to scale, and where to cut. It's the decision that shapes ArcPlay's acquisition funnel for the next three months.

The problem was the preparation. ArcPlay had no unified affiliate analytics layer. Ryan's Q1 data lived across four sources: the affiliate platform's backend, a campaign tracking tool, a shared Google Sheet his team used for creative performance, and a BI dashboard his analyst managed. Pulling those four feeds into a coherent narrative took Ryan the better part of a week every quarter — and that was before the analysis even started. By the time he had a defensible model, he'd made enough manual judgment calls in spreadsheets that he couldn't always explain exactly why a number landed where it did.

The quarterly review meeting was scheduled for Tuesday. Ryan started building his Q2 proposal the Monday of the week before, and still felt underprepared when he walked into the room. If the CMO pushed back on a geo allocation or a CPA assumption, Ryan often couldn't trace the number back to a clean source in real time. The conversation would stall on methodology instead of moving forward to decisions.

"I'd spend five days getting to a number I wasn't fully confident in. The CMO would ask one question I hadn't anticipated, and I'd have to say 'let me get back to you on that.' For a budget decision, that's not a great place to be."

— Ryan Santos, Affiliate Manager, ArcPlay

The Q2 review was three weeks out. Ryan decided to run the entire analysis through Gaming Mind AI and see whether he could build a better proposal, faster.

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Solution

Ryan opened Gaming Mind AI at 9am on a Tuesday. By 9:25am he had a complete, CMO-ready budget allocation model for Q2. The entire session — from Q1 performance review to final proposal summary — ran as a single conversation, each question building on the last without Ryan needing to re-specify context.

Here's how that session unfolded:

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Ryan: "Show me Q1 affiliate performance by tier. I want to see which tier drove the most value — not just clicks, but actual depositing players and LTV."

Tier	Partners	Q1 FTDs	FTD Share	Blended CPA	30-Day LTV	LTV/CPA Ratio	Q1 NGR Contribution
Platinum	14	2,088	38%	$46	$210	4.6x	$438,480
Gold	17	2,200	40%	$58	$238	4.1x	$523,600
Silver	31	1,210	22%	$67	$89	1.3x	$107,690
Total	62	5,498	100%	$55 blended	—	—	$1,069,770

Efficiency Summary

Tier	Total CPA Spend	NGR Generated	Return Multiple	Assessment
Platinum	$96,048	$438,480	4.6x	🟢 Efficient
Gold	$127,600	$523,600	4.1x	🟢 Most efficient LTV/CPA ratio
Silver	$81,070	$107,690	1.3x	🔴 Efficiency drag

⚠️ Gaming Mind flags: The Gold tier has the strongest LTV-to-CPA ratio at 4.1x, beating Platinum's 3.6x (note: 30-day LTV advantage favors Gold per-player despite lower absolute NGR). The Silver tier is the clearest efficiency drag — 31 partners, mediocre CPA, and players who deposit once and don't return. The 22% FTD contribution from Silver comes at a 1.3x LTV/CPA ratio that barely justifies the commission spend.

The picture that emerged reframed how Ryan had been thinking about tier allocation. Platinum partners — fourteen accounts — drove 38% of total FTDs at a blended CPA of $46, with a 30-day LTV of $210 per acquired player. Silver partners — thirty-one accounts — contributed 24% of FTDs at $67 CPA but a 30-day LTV of only $89. The Gold tier sat in the middle on volume, but its LTV-to-CPA ratio was the strongest of the three, at 4.1x versus 3.6x for Platinum and 1.3x for Silver. Gaming Mind flagged the Silver tier as the clearest efficiency drag: high partner count, mediocre CPA, and players who deposited once and didn't return.

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Ryan: "Break Q1 performance down by geo — Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia. I want FTDs, average deposit size, and 60-day retention by country."

Geo	Q1 FTDs	Avg First Deposit	60-Day Retention	Q1 GGR Contribution	Q1 Affiliate Spend	Spend vs Prior Q	Assessment
Philippines (PH)	1,840	$48	34%	$487,200	$78,000	Flat	🟢 Top performer
Thailand (TH)	890	$74	29%	$391,600	$54,000	Flat	🟢 High value per player
Vietnam (VN)	1,060	$38	22%	$247,520	$48,000	Flat	🟡 Mixed — above mkt avg
Indonesia (ID)	610	$31	18%	$114,700	$34,000	+14%	🔴 Underperforming, overspent
Total	4,400	$47 blended	27% blended	$1,241,020	$214,000

⚠️ Gaming Mind flags: Indonesia is the outlier in the wrong direction — 610 FTDs, $31 average deposit, 18% 60-day retention, and affiliate spend that actually increased 14% quarter-over-quarter. The Philippines dominates on volume with the strongest 60-day retention in the portfolio. Thailand produces the highest average deposit size at $74. Indonesian underperformance is the most operationally significant finding in this geo analysis.

The geo breakdown told four different stories. The Philippines dominated on volume — 1,840 FTDs, a $48 average first deposit, and a 34% 60-day retention rate that was the strongest in the portfolio. Thailand produced fewer first-time depositors but the highest average deposit size at $74, with 29% retention. Vietnam was a mixed picture: solid FTD volume, low deposit size, and 22% retention — above average for the market but well below PH. Indonesia was the outlier in the wrong direction: 610 FTDs, a $31 average deposit, and 18% retention. Gaming Mind noted that Indonesian affiliate spend had actually increased 14% quarter-over-quarter, making its underperformance the most operationally significant finding in the geo analysis.

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Ryan: "Which tracking links generated the most qualified traffic? I want to know which campaigns sent players who actually stuck around — not just who clicked."

Rank (by NGR/click)	Link ID	Geo	Campaign Type	Click Volume Rank	FTD Conversion	30-Day Retention	NGR per Qualified Click
1	TH-LIVE-003	Thailand	Live dealer bonus	14th	7.2%	41%	$4.82
2	TH-LIVE-007	Thailand	Live dealer bonus	17th	6.8%	39%	$4.51
3	PH-SPORT-001	Philippines	Sports sign-up	3rd	9.1%	26%	$3.74
4	TH-LIVE-011	Thailand	Live dealer bonus	11th	6.4%	38%	$3.62
5	PH-CASINO-004	Philippines	Casino welcome	8th	7.8%	31%	$3.41
…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…
15	VN-SPORT-002	Vietnam	Sports sign-up	6th	5.9%	23%	$2.11
…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…
19	PH-SPORT-009	Philippines	Sports sign-up	1st	11.4%	21%	$2.01
20	ID-SPORT-005	Indonesia	Sports sign-up	5th	4.8%	17%	$1.44

Key Finding: Live Dealer Thailand vs High-Volume Philippines Sports

Metric	Thai Live Dealer Links (top 3)	PH High-Volume Sports Link (rank 1 clicks)
Avg 30-day retention	39%	21%
NGR per qualified click	$4.32	$2.01
Click volume rank	11th–17th	1st
Ratio (live dealer vs sports)	2.4x downstream revenue	baseline

⚠️ Gaming Mind flags: Three mid-tier Thai affiliate links promoting a live dealer bonus ranked in the top 5 for 30-day retention despite placing outside the top 15 on click volume. The top-ranked Philippine affiliate by clicks ranked 19th on downstream revenue. The Thai live dealer bonus campaigns are delivering roughly 2.4x the downstream revenue of the highest-volume sports traffic links — invisible under any traditional media-buying metric.

Ryan had suspected that raw click-through volume was a misleading signal, and the tracking link data confirmed it. Three links from mid-tier Thai affiliates — promoting a live dealer bonus — ranked in the top five for 30-day retention despite placing outside the top fifteen on click volume. One link from a high-volume Philippine affiliate driving sports sign-up traffic appeared in the top three on clicks but ranked nineteenth on retention. Gaming Mind calculated the NGR-per-qualified-click metric across all twenty links and ranked them: the live dealer bonus campaigns in Thailand were delivering roughly 2.4x the downstream revenue of the high-volume sports traffic links, even though they looked weaker by every traditional media-buying metric.

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Ryan: "How did creative format and landing page type affect conversion? Did players who landed on a localized PHP page convert better than ones hitting the default USDT page?"

Landing Page Conversion Rate by Variant

Landing Page Type	FTD Conversion Rate	vs Default	Consistent Across Geos?	Q1 Budget Share
Localized PHP-denominated page	6.8%	+2.7pp	Yes — all 4 geos	18% of spend
Default USDT page	4.1%	baseline	—	82% of spend

Creative Format — D7 Deposit Rate

Creative Format	D7 Deposit Rate	vs Static Banner	Q1 Budget Share
Short-form video	41%	+13pp	22% of spend
Long-form video	34%	+6pp	11% of spend
Localized native content	31%	+3pp	9% of spend
Static banner ads	28%	baseline	58% of spend

Best-Performing Combination (Q1)

Combination	FTD Conversion	D7 Deposit Rate	Q1 Budget Share
Short-form video + localized PHP landing page	~7.8%	~44%	18% of spend
Static banner + default USDT page (most common)	~3.8%	~26%	~50% of spend

⚠️ Gaming Mind flags: Players routed to localized PHP-denominated landing pages converted at 6.8% versus 4.1% for the default USDT page — a gap that held consistently across all four geos. Short-form video drove the highest D7 deposit rate at 41% versus 28% for static banners. The best-performing combination (short-form video + localized landing page) represented only 18% of Q1 campaign spend. The majority of budget went to the worst-performing combination.

The landing page data was among the clearest findings in the session. Players routed to localized PHP-denominated landing pages converted to FTD at 6.8%, versus 4.1% for the default USDT page — a gap that held consistently across all four geos, not just the Philippines. On the creative side, short-form video drove the highest D7 deposit rate at 41%, versus 28% for static banner ads. Gaming Mind connected the two findings: the best-performing campaign combination in Q1 was short-form video paired with a localized landing page, but it represented only 18% of total campaign spend. The majority of Q1 budget had gone to static banners pointing at the default page — a combination that ranked last on every conversion metric.

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Ryan: "What's the LTV profile of players acquired through each affiliate source? I need to know which sources are sending us whales, which are sending us one-and-dones, and which are sending us the reliable mid-tier regulars."

Player Segment	90-Day NGR Range	Deposit Frequency	Top Affiliate Sources	% of Players	% of Total Affiliate-Sourced NGR
Whale	> $1,200	6+ times	AffHub PH, TigerPromo TH	4%	28%
Mid-tier regular	$300–$1,200	3+ times	2× PH Platinum affiliates, 1× TH Gold affiliate	18%	31%
Casual	$50–$299	1–2 times	BetLink Asia, SportsKing SEA	34%	27%
One-and-done	< $50	1 time only	Indonesian affiliate network	44%	14%

Indonesian Network — One-and-Done Detail

Metric	Indonesian Cohort	Portfolio Average
One-and-done share	64%	44%
60-day retention	18%	27%
90-day NGR per player	$31	$74
CPA premium vs Philippine base	+47%	—

Top 3 Mid-Tier Regular Sources

Affiliate	Tier	Geo	% of Q1 CPA Spend	% of Q1 Affiliate-Sourced NGR
PH Platinum A	Platinum	Philippines	4.8%	11.2%
PH Platinum B	Platinum	Philippines	3.9%	9.8%
TH Gold A	Gold	Thailand	3.3%	10.0%
Top 3 combined			12%	31%

⚠️ Gaming Mind flags: Three affiliate sources — two Platinum-tier Philippines affiliates and one Gold-tier Thai affiliate — accounted for 31% of Q1's total affiliate-sourced NGR while representing only 12% of total CPA spend. The Indonesian affiliate network skewed 64% toward one-and-done players — the clearest argument yet for reallocating that budget. At a 47% CPA premium over the Philippine base, Indonesia is the most expensive geo for the worst player quality.

Gaming Mind segmented Q1 acquisitions into four player profiles and mapped each back to its affiliate source. Two Platinum-tier Philippines affiliates and one Gold-tier Thai affiliate were disproportionate sources of mid-tier regulars — players with 90-day NGR between $300 and $1,200 who deposited three or more times. Those three sources alone accounted for 31% of Q1's total affiliate-sourced NGR despite representing 12% of total CPA spend. On the other end, the Indonesian affiliate network skewed heavily toward one-and-done players: 64% of Indonesian FTDs made exactly one deposit and never returned. That was the clearest argument yet for reallocating Indonesia budget elsewhere.

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Ryan: "Are there any seasonal patterns I should factor into the Q2 geo split? I don't want to overweight a geo that goes quiet in April or May."

Seasonal GGR Index by Geo (Q2 Months — Indexed to Q1 Monthly Average = 100)

Geo	April	May	June	Key Driver	Q2 Recommendation
Philippines (PH)	98	101	104	Low seasonality — stable basketball + casino	Steady base investment
Thailand (TH)	128	119	103	Songkran (Apr), Muay Thai calendar, discretionary uplift	🟢 Front-load spend into April
Vietnam (VN)	91	82	104	Pre-holiday softening April; recovery June	Ease mid-quarter, recover June
Indonesia (ID)	94	88	92	Weak seasonal pattern — Ramadan impact Q1 tail	🔴 Reduce regardless of timing

Planning Assumption Corrections

Previous Assumption	Actual Pattern	Impact
Thailand: flat Q2 spend	Thailand peaks in April–May (+28% / +19%)	Missed seasonal window for 2 consecutive quarters
Vietnam: flat Q2 spend	Vietnam softens April–May (-9% / -18%), recovers June	Overspent during soft window

⚠️ Gaming Mind flags: Thailand historically spikes in April and May — driven by the Muay Thai calendar and Songkran discretionary spending — but Ryan had been holding Thai affiliate spend flat through Q2, missing the seasonal window for two consecutive quarters. Vietnam softens noticeably in April before recovering in June. Indonesia's seasonal pattern is weak regardless of timing, reinforcing the case for budget reduction independent of month.

The seasonal overlay surfaced a planning assumption Ryan had been getting wrong for two consecutive quarters. Thailand historically spikes in April and May — driven by a combination of the Muay Thai calendar and higher discretionary spending around Songkran — but Ryan had been holding Thai affiliate spend flat through Q2, missing the seasonal window. Vietnam, conversely, softens noticeably in April before recovering in June. Gaming Mind recommended front-loading Thai affiliate spend into April, easing Vietnam spend mid-quarter, and maintaining Philippine investment at a steady base given its relatively low seasonality. Indonesia's seasonal pattern was weak regardless of timing — reinforcing the case for reducing that allocation.

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Ryan: "Based on everything we've covered — Q1 tier performance, geo results, LTV by source, creative data, seasonal patterns — give me a Q2 budget allocation model for the $240K. Show me the proposed split and the logic behind it."

Q2 Budget Allocation — $240,000 Total

Geo	Q1 Spend	Q2 Allocation	Change	% of Q2 Budget	Tier Focus	Creative Mandate
Philippines (PH)	$78,000	$98,000	+$20,000 (+26%)	41%	Gold + Platinum	Localized PHP landing pages + short-form video — required
Thailand (TH)	$54,000	$72,000	+$18,000 (+33%)	30%	Gold, front-loaded 60/40 April	Live dealer bonus campaigns; April-heavy pacing
Vietnam (VN)	$48,000	$52,000	+$4,000 (+8%)	22%	Gold + Platinum	Mid-quarter spend pause (May); resume June
Indonesia (ID)	$34,000	$18,000	-$16,000 (-47%)	8%	1 Gold partner only	Limit to sole bright-spot partner; no Silver spend
Total	$214,000	$240,000	+$26,000	100%

Projected Q2 Outcomes vs Q1

Metric	Q1 Actual	Q2 Projected	Change
Blended CPA efficiency	Baseline	-22% blended CPA	🟢 +22% improvement
60-day retained players	Baseline	+19% count	🟢 +19% improvement
Total FTDs (estimated)	4,400	~5,100	+700
Indonesia budget share	16%	8%	Reallocated to PH + TH
Short-form video + localized page spend share	18%	> 60% (mandate)	+280 incremental FTDs est.

Reallocation Rationale (3 Key Data Points)

Decision	Data Point 1	Data Point 2	Data Point 3
Indonesia -47%	64% one-and-done rate	18% 60-day retention	+47% CPA premium vs PH
Thailand +33%, April front-load	+28% GGR index in April (Songkran)	Live dealer links at 2.4x NGR/click	Missed seasonal window 2 quarters running
Localized page mandate (all 60+ partners)	6.8% vs 4.1% FTD conversion	Gap consistent across all 4 geos	+280 estimated incremental FTDs at no additional spend

⚠️ Gaming Mind flags: Philippines receives $98K (41% of budget) weighted toward Gold and Platinum tiers for their LTV-to-CPA advantage. Thailand receives $72K front-loaded into April for the Songkran window. Indonesia drops from $34K to $18K — a 47% reduction — limited to one Gold partner whose retention metrics are the sole bright spot in the country. The model projects 22% improvement in blended CPA efficiency and 19% increase in 60-day retained player count on the same total spend.

Gaming Mind synthesized every data point from the session into a single allocation model. Philippines received $98K — 41% of total budget — weighted toward Gold and Platinum tiers given their LTV-to-CPA advantage, with a strong recommendation to migrate all campaigns to localized PHP landing pages and short-form video creative. Thailand received $72K, front-loaded 60/40 into April given the Songkran window, concentrated on the live dealer bonus campaigns that had outperformed on retention. Vietnam received $52K with a mid-quarter pause in May to avoid the seasonal softening. Indonesia dropped from $34K in Q1 to $18K — a 47% reduction — with spend limited to one Gold-tier partner whose retention metrics were the sole bright spot in the country. The model projected 22% improvement in blended CPA efficiency versus Q1 and a 19% increase in 60-day retained player count on the same total spend.

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Results

A week of spreadsheet work became a 25-minute session

Ryan had the complete Q2 analysis — tier performance, geo breakdown, tracking link rankings, creative effectiveness, player LTV by source, seasonal overlay, and a final allocation model — in a single, twenty-five-minute conversation. He didn't export a CSV, open a BI dashboard, or wait on his analyst for a data pull.

$240K allocated with full traceability

Every dollar in the Q2 budget model traced back to a specific data finding from the session: the LTV-to-CPA ratios that shaped the tier weighting, the landing page conversion data that drove the creative mandate, the seasonal index that front-loaded Thailand in April. When the CMO pushed back on the Indonesia reduction during the review meeting, Ryan could explain it in thirty seconds using three numbers — 64% one-and-done rate, 18% 60-day retention, and a 47% CPA premium over the Philippine base. The conversation moved forward instead of stalling.

CMO approved the proposal the same week

In previous quarters, the budget review spanned two or three meetings over two weeks, with Ryan returning between sessions to verify challenged numbers. This time, the proposal was presented, questioned, and approved in a single ninety-minute meeting. The CMO cited the LTV-by-source segmentation as the clearest affiliate analysis ArcPlay had produced since launch.

Indonesian waste caught before Q2 launched

The finding that 64% of Indonesian-sourced FTDs were one-and-done players represented a structural inefficiency that had compounded for at least two quarters without being detected. Gaming Mind surfaced it by connecting the affiliate source data to the player lifecycle data — information that lived in two separate systems and had never been analyzed together. The reallocation of that $16K toward higher-retention Thai and Philippine partners was projected to yield an additional sixty-two retained players per quarter on no incremental budget.

Creative and landing page mandate set for all 60+ partners

The conversion gap between localized PHP landing pages and the default USDT page — 6.8% versus 4.1% — became a formal requirement in ArcPlay's affiliate program terms for Q2. All partners were notified within a week of the proposal approval. Ryan estimated the mandate alone would add roughly 280 incremental FTDs per quarter without any change in acquisition spend.

"I used to walk into that quarterly review knowing there were numbers in my model I couldn't fully defend. Now I walk in knowing exactly where every dollar is going and why. The CMO asked harder questions this time because the proposal was better — and I had an answer for all of them."

— Ryan Santos, Affiliate Manager, ArcPlay